Serie A Strategy leads the way with 13 winners on the bounce

It has been a couple of months since I last posted and I thought I would update on how things have been developing.

Firstly I will look at my ratings.

As some of you will know it is my goal to provide subscribers of my daily email 100 points profit a year and this is to be gained with following strategies and ratings on the US Sports NHL, MLB & NBA along with the Serie A.

Over the past 12 months the NHL has provided 40 points the NBA 14 points and the MLB 30 points with the Italian strategy 11 points up this season. So I am almost there  but I also believe this can be improved on in time.

We had a spectacular play off season with the MLB baseball and in October we had 13 bets and 11 winners giving +12.23 points profit. 

Last season on the baseball I officially finished +30.43 of which the results can be seen here.

During last season a colleague of mine did some tremendous work and has identified some great trends that were used during the play offs . On the MLB we are now at phase 3 of the ratings process and now it is just a case of tinkering to improve on the findings of the last two seasons. I am really looking forward to next season and am hoping for some very good returns.

This season in the NBA basketball we have literally tread water this season and although we are now on phase 2 of the rating process we are looking at this season primarily to get some data together. Last season was slightly different as the league had a lockout up to Christmas Day and so the games came thick and fast and so we need to establish that what we found is working. 

As previously stated this season we are treading water somewhat but that can happen when opposing the favourite and in my experience you tend to go through these spells before having a good run. This seasons NBA results can be found here

The NHL is unfortunately suffering a lockout this season and this produced over 40 points profit last season of which the results can be found here. Hopefully there are rumours that part of the season can be salvaged. 

This season we would look to improve on the results of last year and there is no question about it Ice Hockey is certainly one of the most unpredictable sports and this helps when we are opposing odds on favourites so I am hopeful  we should be again in action after the new year.

The Italian SerieA strategy has again gone from strength to strength and again it looks as though we will see a solid profit this season. At this moment in time we have seen 13 winners on the bounce and the basic idea of the strategy is that you are opposing the low priced draw and siding with the home team whilst covering the 0-0 draw. The results can be seen here.   

This strategy has now been solidly profitable for 3 seasons now and I cannot really see this changing as the draw is just ridiculously priced in some of these matches.

Also at the moment I am also experimenting with the French League and sending the ratings and  picks to readers of my daily Email. I believe the French League could be very similar to the Italian league. However I am using this season purely to gather data and see if there is a profitable angle.

If you would like to receive my email on a daily basis that covers all the US Sports as well as the Italian League strategy then the cost is just £15 a month. At this moment in time I am limiting the number of people who can take this service and at the time of writing I still have 3 places to fill. 

If you are interested in joining this service then it should be remembered that this is more intended for the more patient and experienced bettor and you are advised to be initially working from a 50 point bank. I have had in the past punters who are betting out of their pocket and as you can see by looking at the results losing runs are inevitable. So please ensure you are correctly capitalised before thinking of joining this service.

Details of the service can be found here

Going forward I will regularly review where I am with the ratings on this blog.

Profitable start to football season and testing of MLB ratings shows positive returns

Well it has been a busy few weeks since my last post with the start of the Football season and my involvement with Premier Betting.

We have had a reasonable start to the season on Premier Betting and are just shy of 3 points in profit. I always feel that this is certainly the toughest time of season for betting on the Premier League and I always advise extreme caution as in my opinion the current season form does not start really revealing its self until after the October International break.

I’m also pleased with the way the software BetformPro is performing and the positive feedback we have received from the users. We devised this tool early last season and since January it has played a major part in our decision making process as  you really get a feeling for how the game may pan out and where the value lies. Betformpro appeals to the more sophisticated punter or to stats geeks who really like to dig into the stats on the various fringe markets.

As far as my ratings are concerned then I have still kept a watching brief on the baseball and the system I have in place since I stopped betting has shown a 23 point profit so the system has shown over 40 points profit this season. This has given me great confidence going forward. Last year at this time with various sides displaying the end of season feeling and using the old system we had a disastrous run however the current system seems to have thrived during this period. It has obviously been frustrating to be out of the market but I had to give the new system a full and proper test before giving it the go ahead.

I am really hoping that the NHL lockout does not come to fruition as the ratings had a very successful season last year. This season I will be using the same system as last year but will be looking to make further improvements. The same can be said for the NBA.

I am also looking at the ATP Tennis but feel that much more work needs to be done before I can progress with some confidence.

Due to the success of my ratings I am going to put a cap on the number of people who can subscribe to my newsletter as I do not want to kill the goose that laid the golden egg. An awful lot of effort goes into devising these systems and the last thing I want is to possibly lose any edge we may have. 

Since I started experimenting and using ratings for US Sports 2 years ago I have had to undergo a complete mindset change. Before I started using the Betting exchanges I was never really a punter and although I have no problem placing a few thousand pounds into a pre match football market to risk £100 on a trade the placing of over £100 on a straight bet was completely alien to me.

Ultimately this is an area I am moving into more and the US Sports seem to suit this ratings system.

I think the problem with trading that many newcomers have is that they are always looking for the perfect system or the ‘Holy Grail’ and it simply does not exist and so people try to complicate things and occasionally this can get frustrating.

I am often asked if the tennis strategy in my book is still profitable. Well it is but in my opinion it is an awful lot of work sitting in front of a computer ensuring that all the parameters are met before even being able to put on the trade and this in itself can prove very frustrating. Whereas with a simple ratings system all you are doing is following the system and backing the selection and then waking up to see if you are in profit or not. However obviously to make it worthwhile you have to place a reasonable amount on the selection.

Also I have continued my Italian strategy in the newsletter and the first two weeks have proved profitable showing +2.42 points. Here in this system essentially I am using a rating system to oppose the draw and back the home side. The last 2 seasons have seen some decent profits but thanks to the input of one of my members I am hoping this will significantly improve this season. I like betting on the Serie A because the results are fairly consistent particularly involving the mid to lower table sides but obviously you have to be wary comer April where some strange prices are seen concerning the draw.

Finally I will be releasing a supplement to the newsletter before the Ryder Cup highlighting a strategy that is good to use during the tournament and if you are interested in receiving this then please go here or for the newsletter prospectus click here

Rollercoaster ride betting the MLB

Well it has been a bit of a rollercoaster ride with my baseball ratings this season and now we have reached the stage of the season where last year more of the favourites won and the ratings went on a particularly bad run as some teams began to fall out of play-off contention. Consequently I am not using the same rating system until the playoffs start again.

 As already mentioned this baseball season has seen some highs and lows. Initially things started well with the profits hitting +18.46 at the end of May before retracting to +5.95 points in the middle of June this then surged to +17.78  at the end of June before again falling back to +1.51 points in the middle of July before again recovering to +18.20 from the beginning of this month.

So as can be seen from the above betting on baseball is extremely streaky at best but when you do hit a good run the profits are there. I always advise that people are well capitalised to deal with these losses but even my confidence was tested over the last few couple of months.

It is goal in my newsletter to eventually be able to provide my subscribers with 100 points profit a year covering the Baseball, Ice Hockey, Basketball and ATP tennis. 

So far over the past 12 months I have hit  +71.93 points profits which is broken down as follows:

Baseball  +18.20 Points

Ice Hockey +33.13

Basketball  +14.38

Italian football +6.22

Total +71.93

Thanks to input from some members I have also learned a hell of a lot from when I initially started creating these ratings namely that in order to have confidence in the process and system you are building consistency is key. 

For example this year in the baseball I have been comparing my ratings to the starting prices offered by 3 leading bookmakers whereas before I was comparing the rating to the Pinnacles price at the time of producing the rating. I can now see how flawed my approach was.

I have also received some valuable input on the basketball and my Italian Football strategy so hopefully we will go through a period of continual improvement.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the Ice hockey this season. I will be following the same approach as last season but will also be reporting all value positive or negative of 2.50% or above to see if there are any further angles which can be exploited.

I have also added ATP tennis into the mix now where I have a member in Spain who provides me with his ratings here gain I am just initially testing the ratings and there looks to be some good trends in backing any selection that offers over 10% value. 

The only thing I dont like about this approach is that the system recommends backing some odds on favourites and this generally goes against my principles. He has now provided me with around 6 weeks worth of ratings and so I shall now look to see if there are any other trends that develop. 

Hopefully the ATP tennis will provide further ammunition and my goal of providing 100 points profit in 12 months worth of selections will not be far away.

I think anybody who creates or is thinking of creating their own rating system the key is initially to have the  discipline and be consistent with your compilation of your ratings and how you compare them to what the bookmakers are quoting . 

This is key going forward as after you have enough data you can then follow with confidence any trends which may appear. it has certainly proved fruitful in my case

If you would like to see a prospectus for the newsletter please click here

Preparing for the new season

Well it has been a while since the Euros but I am now back refreshed and raring to go with the new football season just 10 days away. 

I have been fairly busy over the close season and have produced another book The Foundations of Football Betting which was released on Monday and the details can be found here. The book is also now available on Amazon and ITunes and retails for between £4 and £5

This is going to be the first of a series of EBooks which we hope will cover every aspect of betting on football. The fundamentals book too many could be the most boring book however it is certainly the most important  and if you can master these disciplines then hopefully the profits will follow.

If you would like to find out how you can get a free copy of this Ebook please go to Premier-Betting.com and sign up for the free Weekly Insider where we will release details of how you can get a copy in this weekends issue. 

Some people have asked if we were releasing another premier betting stats book but unfortunately for the publishers this is just not commercial enough as essentially the book is out of date once the first ball is kicked in the new season.

Also we have been working on our software BetformPro of which you can see a video below. We have now been working on this software for 18 months and were able to use a basic version of the software from January this year and this has really helped in sourcing some good betting opportunities.

This software/ database really saves some time when we are sourcing the weekend bets as I can quickly identify if any market offers any value. 

The great thing about BetformPro is that you can very quickly build up how a match is likely to played out based on how the teams have performed generally and against similar opposition in the past. 

There is also an In Play version of the software which again is very useful especially if you are watching the game concerned as if you can combine the way the game is unfolding with the two teams previous stats when in a similar scenario at a certain point in the game then you have a pretty powerful tool whether betting or trading on the game. We will certainly be using this tool extensively this season both pre match and In Play.

If you want to find out more about this software then simply head over to betformpro.com

Euro 2012 Final Prediction

Sunday 01st July 

Spain v Italy Kick off 19:45 BST

This should be a fascinating encounter and there certainly looks to be some value in siding with Spain to win this game at 2.20.

Our assessment sees value in the following prices

Spain -0.5 @ 2.10+ / Italy +0.5 @ 2.22+

over 2 @ 2.13+ / under 2 @ 2.19+

Obviously there is a strong trend in finals for the game to be low scoring and the price of Under 2.5 goals is ridiculously low.

Edo has a slight lean towards Spain and although I believe Spain offer good value I fancy the Italians to be triumphant 

Of more appeal maybe Spain to keep a clean sheet which is priced at 2.10 and this allows for the 0-0 draw.

Trading Test Match Cricket

This weekend I am releasing a Test Match special edition of the Trade on Sports newsletter. The 300 page document contains the scorecards betting charts and analysis of 34 test matches played in various contents over the past 2/3 years.

I really like trading test match cricket as it suits my trading style. I am one of these people who tends not to follow every ball of the match and I generally like to get involved in the following 3 passages of play.

1.    At the Innings break.

2.    At the start or end of a days play.

3.    When a price hits a resistance point

I also like getting involved in the final innings of a game especially if the batting side are fighting to stay in the game. I find if you are not too greedy and set yourself realistic targets and price movements there are plenty of excellent low risk trading opportunities to be found.

Also I like to use Bet Angel when trading test match cricket because it allows me to set a trailing stop loss and this I find invaluable especially if a trade has moved in your general direction as at times you can profit by far more than you had initial set your target for.

The idea of bringing the data and price movement together in one document is that it keeps all of the matches together and it should then be easier to find a match where there has been a similar scenario in place as to the game taking place currently.

Then through looking at the charts you can then see where the price movements went after certain passages of play which in turn gives you the confidence to set up your trade knowing where your entry and exit points should be.

Trading test match cricket is more of a black art really and because conditions can be very different from game to game it is extremely difficult to come up with some exact strategies and although this document does not come up with any set strategies it does highlight some key price points that have proven to be successful trading points during a certain time in the match.

Also you will see during my trading notes that when certain trades did not go my way my losses where well contained and if you are disciplined trading test match cricket can be a very useful addition to your trading armoury.

If you would like to receive this months Test match Special newsletter please go to http://petenordsted.com/newsletter for details on how to purchase it.

Euro 2012 Semi Final Predictions

Semi Finals

Well we enjoyed a fairly successful Quarter finals with all 4 games going fairly close to the script.

These 2 semi finals are going to be very tight affairs and it would not surprise us if both of these games went the full distance.

Pete has now traded out of the Portugal to win the tournament bet/trade and Edo still has a couple of large plays on Germany to win the tournament and to progress further than Spain.
It will be very interesting to see if Italy can continue their historical dominance over their German rivals or will this trend be broken as in the quarter finals when Spain defeated France for the 1^st time in a competitive match.

In truth both of these games offer no real value although there is some small value in backing Overs.

Wednesday 27th June 

Spain v Portugal Kick off 19:45 BST

This was a very tight fixture when the 2 countries met in the knockout stages of the last world cup finals with Spain coning out on top 1-0.

However since that match, Portugal has beaten their near rivals 4-0 in a friendly last November.
The asian handicap Market is priced about right and if you fancy either side we would look to get involved at the following prices

Spain -0.5 @ 2.06+ or Portugal +0.75 1.952+. 

Over 2 @ 2.02+ / under 2 @ 2.32+, 

correct score 1-1 @ 7.36+.

As for In Play it may be worth waiting until the action starts and if it is an open game Over 1.5 would certainly be worth trading after 15 minutes.
,
Thursday 28th June 

Germany v Italy Kick off 19:45 BST

This game is priced about right in what is a very close game to call and historically the Italians have had the better of the Germans and the Germans have lost some very high profile matches to the Italians including a World Cup final and 2 world Cup Semi Finals.

Obviously this was some time ago but once Italy get into the knockout stages of any major tournament they have to be respected. 

We believe the Asian markets are spot on for this game and our entry prices would be as below

As with the Spain game we feel the Overs offers a small piece of value 

 Germany -0.5 @ 2.14+ / Italy +0.5 @ 2.18+. 

Over 2.25 @ 2.17+ / under 2.25 @ 2.15+.